Risk ranking: Assessed 69 pests- none pose high risk

The Norwegian Scientific Committee for Food and Environment (VKM) has assessed and ranked 69 plant pests that the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization (EPPO) recommends that member countries regulate as quarantine pests. These are organisms that can cause damage to plants and are currently not regulated in Norway. The assessment was commissioned by the Norwegian Food Safety Authority.

Background

The Norwegian Food Safety Authority is responsible for developing regulations and proposing measures to protect Norwegian agriculture and natural ecosystems from serious plant pests. The risk is constantly changing due to increasing global trade, changing trade patterns, changes in cultivation practices, climate change, and a lack of effective control measures. The assignment will provide the Norwegian Food Safety Authority with a basis for prioritising which new pests should be considered further for regulation.

Methodology

VKM used FinnPRIO, a semi-quantitative tool for rapid risk ranking of pests. FinnPRIO was developed in Finland and follows the structure of a standard pest risk assessment by evaluating the probability of entry, the probability of establishment and spread, and the potential consequences for plant health. Climate suitability in Norway for the different pests was modelled using the Maxent machine learning algorithm. An AI-based literature retrieval system that “reads” scientific literature was used as a support tool in the assessment of some of the pests.

Findings

The 69 assessed pests included 52 insects, 8 bacteria, 4 viruses, 3 fungi, 1 mite, and 1 oomycete. These were ranked into five risk classes:

• Very high risk: No pests

• High risk: No pests

• Moderate risk: Six pests: the insects Choristoneura fumiferana, Dendrolimus superans, and Grapholita packardi; the viruses Potexvirus pepini and Tobamovirus fructirugosum; the bacterium Xylella fastidiosa

• Low risk: 20 pests

• Very low risk: 43 pests

The six pests assessed to pose a moderate risk stand out either because they could have significant consequences for Norwegian plant health if they establish, or because they combine a moderate probability of invasion with a moderate impact on Norwegian plant health.

This report is the second of several deliverables. In total, 129 pests have now been assessed.

VKM delivers independent scientific assessments of matters that affect the environment and safe food. VKM does not provide advice or take a position on how risk should be managed, but it may assess the consequences of different courses of action. It is therefore up to the commissioning bodies to decide on the risk-reducing measures that VKM has identified and assessed.